“We judge global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security interests over the next 20 years . . . The United States depends on a smooth-functioning international system ensuring the flow of trade and market access to critical raw materials such as oil and gas, and security for its allies and partners. Climate change and climate change policies could affect all of these—domestic stability in a number of key states, the opening of new sea lanes and access to raw materials, and the global economy more broadly—with significant geopolitical consequences.”
National Intelligence Committee, National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, June 25, 2008.
Being laughed at in the late-2000s, the global affects of climate change and that effect on US National Security has become a major and increasing issue. This can especially be seen in the increased militarization of the Artic region by adversarial nations like Russia and China. One specific area that is coming more into focus is the GIUK Gap.
The GIUK Gap refers to a region in the North Atlantic Ocean, between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom, that is critical to the security and stability of the northern hemisphere. It's also known as the "Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap." This region is of great strategic importance because it's a major shipping lane for global trade and a key area for undersea communication cables.
Why the GIUK Gap is Important
The GIUK Gap has long been a critical zone for maritime activity, particularly for military operations. The gap is an essential passage for ships traveling between Europe and North America, as well as a major route for the transportation of oil and natural gas from the Arctic. The region is also home to numerous undersea communication cables, which provide critical links for global communication and commerce.
In recent years, the GIUK Gap has gained increased attention due to the melting of Arctic sea ice, which is making the region more accessible for shipping and other activities. This presents both opportunities and challenges, as the increased activity in the region has the potential to enhance economic growth, but also raises concerns about the potential for accidents, such as oil spills, that could harm the fragile Arctic ecosystem.
Conflict: NATO v. USSR; now NATO and Russia
The GIUK Gap is of great interest to the military, as it provides a key strategic advantage to countries that control the region. During the Cold War, the gap was an area of intense military activity, with both NATO and the Soviet Union maintaining a strong presence in the region to monitor shipping and military activity.
In recent years, the military has continued to play an important role in the GIUK Gap, particularly as the region becomes increasingly important for global trade and commerce. The United States, for example, has been increasing its presence in the Arctic, with a focus on enhancing its ability to respond to potential threats and protect its interests in the region. Other countries, such as Russia and China, are also increasing their activity in the region, which has led to concerns about the potential for conflict.
Russia has maintained since the cold war and have recently increased the presence of their Cold War-era “Bear” bombers in the strategic area of the North Atlantic and Barents Sea near Greenland, Iceland, and the UK, along with the territorial waters of Norway, Finland, and Sweden.
We will explore this area more in Episode 2 of Burnbags & Blazers, releasing this upcoming week.